Factual Dispatch #25: Tiffany Cabán & Lessons For A Bored Nation

My district is in the news again, this time for our soon-to-be confirmed primary victory by a public defender by the name of Tiffany Cabán. A huge upset over the perceived front-runner Melinda Katz, for the job of Queens District Attorney, a seat left to the voters after Richard Brown died in May. Her positions have been detailed by the Gotham Gazette for eager readers & new constituents.

Though the New York Times & the Katz campaign say that the race is too close to call, with a 1090+ vote differential and ~3400 absentee ballots being counted, the likelihood that this upset is upset diminishes by the hour. If the vote totals fall within 0.5% of each other, a hoped-for-by-Katz recount will be declared. No matter what, the emergence of a coherent alternative to the Queens machine grows with every election, much to the chagrin of centrists everywhere. Given that Daniel Kogan, the GOP opponent of Cabán declaring that he’d step aside to allow centrist/conservative Lasak (one of her previous primary opponents) the chance to beat her in the general, To understand how, we need to wind the clock back a few months…

Katz, deBlasio, Cuomo, and the rest of the usual suspects lined up for the Amazon deal, not realizing the ground had shifted under them. One of my favorite financial voices, Barry Ritholtz, describes this situation expertly, and I could not recommend his read on it more highly. A State Senator named Michael Gianaris, not only had control over pulling the brakes on the deal, but he read the changing winds before anyone else. He saw what was described laboriously in this Financial Times article, the idea that you can draw a straight line from quantitative easing and corporate bail outs to millennial socialism. This led to a situation where Bezos knew that he needed to walk before he was stuffed, to save face and earn social capital to spend in other cities.

After this fight transpired, activists and progressive candidates were energized. If they could beat Amazon, Cuomo, the Queens machine, AND the real estate lobby, what else could they do? When the snap election for a new District Attorney was called, Melinda Katz thought she was a no-brainer for the role, not remembering the bad taste that she’d left in AOC’s supporters during the Amazon fracas. The New York Times saw the writing on the wall and endorsed Cabán far more quickly this time. After that, all that was needed was a debate where Cabán was able to draw a clear line between her and the cluster of centrists, and her non-apathetic base of support did the rest.

I struggled on how to review, research, and present my thoughts on the Cavalcade of Mediocrity that was the first two DNC debates. With Gen Z & Millennials moving away from the pack on a lot of the issues discussed, and the media trying to cope with a “Trump Slump,” I think a bunch of the commentary we got last week was useless. Not recognizing that candidates shifted in response to the first night, jumping to react instantly, thinking of their performance in isolation, and not letting things settle is a mistake. So I took some time, read a bunch, watched the nightly & Sunday morning talking heads, and let things stew. Here my simmered thoughts:

• Overall, Warren remained unbowed. She acquitted herself nicely, moved to a solid Medicare-for-All position to neutralize heat she was getting from the left, and put no feet in her mouth. I think the first evening was hers to lose and that didn’t happen, especially compared to Bernie’s less insurmountable position the second night. Bernie was shaken by a few questions, but it definitely feels like the race is between Warren and Sanders at the moment.

• I was struck by how much airtime Booker was given and how little he managed to actually say. I was expecting more policy, less fluff, and no Newark anecdotes. It felt like Kamala Harris’ camp saw this and ensured she was more targeted in her critiques to avoid the trap Booker & Beto fell into.

• A clever friend referred to Beto as the “white Obama” and I think that’s spot on. He came off as an optimistic, if bookish centrist, hoping to bring people together by looking off in the middle distance. That got you the presidency in 2008, but it’s not a compliment for 2020.

• Delaney, Inslee, and Ryan sparred for the free memory of everyone watching on night 1, but I’m not sure it was “good” for any of them. Inslee remained on message but appeared one-dimensional. Ryan threw increasingly annoying tantrums about air time, while Delaney managed to come off as both frustratingly ignorant and creepy.

• I did not expect deBlasio to sound like a human being, much less drop remixes of his old favorites “Who among us has a Black Son?” and “My WWII Veteran Dad killed himself, did yours?” Given that he was one of the candidates being protested, and managed to go from the debate to quoting Che Guevara, I would not bet his campaign is long for this world.

• Tulsi Gabbard is the closest thing I think night 1 had to a “winner” (with Castro as a close second). Her messaging was disciplined, she didn’t take any weird argumentative bait, and separated herself as the only comprehensively anti-war candidate on the stage. Which I think the internet seemed to agree on. Whether she can survive press scrutiny, given her checkered history, remains to be seen.

• Swalwell’s dunk on Biden was on point, and should be remembered. He tried to re-use it on Bernie, which was a serious mistake. More importantly, he had the young person version of Bennet’s hair, with Hickenlooper showcasing the elderly version of Bennet’s hair. This “hair in transition” piece for night 2 all but guarantees the 3 of them will be tethered together until they drop out.

• The Delaney, Inslee, Ryan, Hickenlooper Bennet, Swalwell Royal Rumble will be bad for all involved. Most voters couldn’t differentiate them on stage, so if asked today or further in the future, they’ll have the name recognition of the bottom half of the Bachelorette pack at the end of week 2.

• Biden had the most to lose of any candidate, having failed to differentiate himself from the centrist morass. Every time he said lifespan, voters remembered Smallwell’s dunk. His calling the comparison of Trump & Obama’s migrant detention center policy “immoral” was dumb, full stop. We did fucked up shit to people at the border during Obama’s years and he could’ve done something about it then.

• Gillibrand was more aggressive than expected, but it did not help her in the way it helped Harris. While Harris punched up, Gillibrand seemed to berate the moderators and clamor for a chance to give somewhat disappointingly middle-of-the-road takes. Without explaining to voters that she isn’t just Hillary Clinton with a different hat, she’s going to sink fast.

• Buttigieg was working hard to not be diminished the way others were. He did say the correct thing about how China’s authoritarian model is being put up against ours…but I don’t think the point landed. While avoiding the centrist-white-dude morass, he fell into the same basket Booker & Beto landed, where they just didn’t have anything different or important to say that someone else on the stage wasn’t saying better.

• Williamson was given her first question 28 minutes in. Honestly, that’s pretty disrespectful, especially given that the big 3 have spoken multiple times at that point. She took the discussion to the hole when given the chance. Calling out Latin american violence we’ve done to generate the migrant crisis, and also speaking about trauma specifically, is huge.

• Yang did as well as he could given his paltry air time, but I am looking forward to a better journalist (like Medhi Hasan perhaps) sitting down with him and giving his policy proposals a thorough once over. Delivering a national conversation on universal basic income would be the best thing to come out of his candidacy.

Eye-Watering Data Visualization: So, we’ve gotten a bit better at 3D modeling over the last decade or two…

Annoying-But-Correct Take of the Week: Have period parties for your tween/teen girls. We need to stop being terrified of menstruation. Also, for the 3,457,892nd time, Capitalism, in its current structure, is the problem. 

Vaguely Dystopian Read of the Week: Here’s how you’re being manipulated online. Also, the 82nd Airborne is sending pocket-sized drones with its soldiers deploying to Afghanistan for the first time.

“Huh, Interesting” Read of the Week: A medieval guide to modern Kaiju, and Iraq’s drought has gotten so bad it’s unearthed a 3400 year old palace.

 Royal Sampler 

Many mainland Chinese do not support the Hong Kong protests, and it’s not just because they’re getting censored news. (New York Times) Also, as the publishing industry in Hong Kong goes, so does the world. (Foreign Policy)

In case you’d forgotten, Myanmar is still doing terrible shit and Facebook keeps helping them. (Foreign Policy)

What has happened to the price of Insulin is a neat explanation for why other countries don’t allow this to happen to drug prices. (The American Prospect)

Cocaine, while never really having gone away, is back! And “uberization of cocaine” is definitely not a phrase I had on my bingo card. (Bloomberg)

With Morocco’s youth increasingly frustrated with the lack of opportunity they face, it might be the next site of revolution in North Africa. (BBC)

Dunk of the Week:

Decided to go with a Monday release, given the debates. How do you like it? No Friday dispatch this week because of the holiday, but we’ll be back next week with a deep dive on Libra, Facebook’s new crypto-but-not-cryptocurrency.

Happy Freedom Week!

T