Factual Dispatch #51: Land War in Asia

Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, drones, mercenaries, and old hatreds.

October 10, 2020

While America copes with its Afflicted Autocrat, the expanding conflict between Azerbaijan & Turkey vs Armenia threatens regional stability so much Russia is playing peacemaker.

Over the last 12hrs, a shaky ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been put into place. Brokered by Moscow, the agreement calls for mediation, allowances for the exchange of prisoners, bodies of the dead, and humanitarian aid. Artsakh, or Nagorno-Karabakh as it’s referred to in the West, is a region controlled by Azerbaijan but is largely ethnic Armenian.

Given to Azerbaijan by Joseph Stalin in 1921, he later allowed it to be autonomous. The region has a long and terrifying history, best reviewed in this Politico.eu and this Vox article. It’s been under control of Azerbaijan since 1994, after a war that killed more than 30,000. The regional infighting stretches back to the 16th century, as the rough cultural border between the various peoples of the Caucasus bled Christian & Muslim. During 20th Century the region saw the First World War, the Armenian genocide, Stalinism, Command Authoritarianism, the dissolution of the USSR, and that brings us back to 1994. Since the violence started again in late September, over 350 Armenians have died, and some number of Azeris, though the Azerbaijani government isn’t reporting military casualties.

In 2016, a flare-up left 200 dead, and has since been referred to as the Four-Day War. The current conflict began on Sept 27th, when the Azeri military began hitting civilian targets in the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert. Armenia is said to have responded by shelling the Azeri city of Ganja. By yesterday, October 9th, 75,000 people have been estimated to be displaced by the fighting.

There have reports Karabakh Republic forces are using cluster weapons against Azerbaijani population centers. Armenia, the Karabakh Republic and Azerbaijan are not members of Convention on Cluster Munitions, so the Amnesty International warning of Israeli-made cluster bombs being used by Azerbaijani forces to hit Stepanakert should be taken seriously. As should reports a major Armenian cathedral hosting Russian journalists was hit with shells. The cathedral had been sheltering civilians, but the Azeri Defense Ministry denied the attack.

Notably, Azeri attacks have not pushed into Armenian territory. This provocation would light off Armenia’s Collective Security Treaty Organization alliance with Russia. This probably motivated the Russian negotiators to get a deal done before either side gets a little too into it. Also, Azerbaijani gas exports are needed for Georgia and Turkey, especially now that the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline is almost done, and Azeri energy infrastructure is rumored to be targeted by Karabakh forces.

They did admit to releasing a heavy metal video where literally Azerbaijan military hardware is on display, alongside some of the goofy music video tropes you occasionally notice when you’re in a hookah bar and look up at the TV.

The guy in the video totally looks like the guy who captures Tony Stark in Iron Man 1.

One Stark Enterprises-adjacent complication to this round of Azeri/Armenian fighting is deep use of modern warfare. The Azeri ruling party operated a troll farm on Facebook that it took over a year to be taken down after being flagged. Kamikaze drones are flooding in from Israel and it’s estimated 1000 Syrian mercenaries have been deployed by Turkey. When you get deeper, it gets more complicated, via Haaretz:

In trying to describe the conduct of the parties involved in this fight, a cynical observer might quote from “The Tempest,” Shakespeare’s last play: “Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows.” This is how Turkey and Israel, currently hostile to one another (with Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating only last week that Jerusalem belongs to the Moslems), find themselves both supporting Azerbaijan, a Shi’ite Moslem country. On the other side, Iran, a third of whose population is of Azeri extraction (including its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei), is supporting Christian Armenia and, according to some reports, supplying it with weapons. Russia, which has a military base in Armenia, is trying to please everyone, arming Azerbaijan as well.

Turkey denies sending Syrian mercenaries, but their bodies showing up on the battlefield and recruits talking to The Guardian kind of shoot that denial out of the sky.

“He agreed to go the week his family literally had no food in their fridge; his father is very old and they had started to borrow money,” says Mohammed’s friend Omar, who is spearheading an anti-recruitment drive to stop other young men following in Mohammed’s footsteps. “So, he immediately agreed when he was offered the job in Azerbaijan.”

Omar said Mohammed’s story is typical. He did not know Azerbaijan or the conflict existed before he was reportedly posted there: as the only son in a family of 10, he had left school at 13 when the Syrian civil war erupted to earn a living.  

The New York Times also found evidence Turkish F-16s were parked at the Azeri International Airport, lending further credence to Turkey’s alleged involvement. Especially since Armenia claims one of their fighters was shot down by a Turkish jet.

Sinan Ulgen of Foreign Policy makes a compelling argument reminding us that Turkey might not have the cash to fund essentially two front war, but it’s great meat for Erdogan’s base. Sound familiar? Iran is providing full-throated defense of the Armenians, but their actions might not match their words. Iran quietly urged Armenian forces to withdraw from UN-recognized Azeri borders.

Armenians are flooding into Karabakh from not just Armenia, but other places in Central Asia to fight. This 11min documentary by VICE, shared by Serj Tankian of System of a Down is a stunning look at the people who are heading to the border to stop what they believe to be another genocide. 

Jacobin makes the correct point that in addition to a ceasefire, there needs to be truth and reconciliation, like there was in South Africa and Northern Ireland. We probably need to re-evaluate regional borders. Should the Karabakh Republic exist? That’s absolutely not something I know enough about to opine on.. Will America join hands with Russia and France to really put this to bed? I’m not holding my breath. But for now, the bombs have stopped dropping, Putin has a feather in his cap, and Turkey might stop behaving badly if both America and Russia hisses at them loudly enough.

The Kids Are Alright: A thread of Folk Games…low-stakes, highly competitive local games bored teens come up with. Honestly, this wine glass challenge looks hilarious, and the egg/paintball spin the bottle one is definitely something my goon squad would have gotten up to:

Ray of Hope: The world’s biggest provider of wind and solar energy is now a more valuable company than Exxon Mobil. (Bloomberg)

Song of the Dispatch: If you guessed I’d be picking something from Serj Tankian, you’re starting to get the hang of this game. This eerily unnerving cover of the Charlie Parker standard however…

Do what you need to do so you can keep fighting. You’re no good to anyone if you’re too injured to watch our backs.

You’re needed,T