Factual Dispatch #39: Loitering Munitions

War continues its long march from being fought entirely by flesh to being fought entirely by steel. These days, there’s an idea referred to keeping a human “in the loop,” prevents a drone from firing on a human without a meat sack actually pulling the trigger. This idea is up for debate these days, with a startling number of people who argue for the negation, removing humans from the trigger line, even extending to use of nuclear weapons. For a frighteningly detailed conversation on that, I recommend the Foreign Exchanges podcast with Kelsey Atherton on the matter. Mentioned only briefly on the podcast was an idea terrifying enough that I had to dig in on it: Loitering Munitions. (Editor’s Note: This is for civilian audiences, so use of counter drone vs. UAV vs. loitering munitions will hope to be informational and may be slightly different than official military designations.)

In late August, the Army put out a request for info on what can be thought of as a missile system that can “loiter” or patrol a specific geographic area for intelligence or targets, and if found & ordered, strike at a later time. Much like the riff raff in West Side Story, weapon systems like this make any neighborhood they loiter in quite a bit more dangerous.

While this sounds Blade Runner tier dystopian, the first loitering munition system was actually announced to the public all the way back in 1990. The Harpy, developed by Israeli Aerospace Industries, looked for radar signals in a given area, destroying any that were found. This system, purchased by Turkey & India at the time, relied on tech that advanced slowly until the sensor explosion of the early 2010s. In 2011, the USA fielded its first rudimentary loitering munition system, the Switchblade. The tube-launched missile was the first to loiter on the battlefield looking for high value targets, that actually had the micro-sensors needed to differentiate them from rocks, Steve’s jaunty new hat in the distance, or the sunset.

Modern loitering munition systems can put a death tube in the air for several hours, hanging out above a target 60 miles away. With plans for Israel to build new systems in the USA as well, this weapon type is not going away any time soon. Why? They’re cheap, they are relatively painless to build, and if you don’t care about getting the missile back, you can harass a moderately superior land force without putting your soldiers or even pilots in harm’s way. In other words, it’s asymmetrical, and as the Saudis are realizing, asymmetrical tactics are very difficult to defend against.

Of course, the military world isn’t taking this lying down, with multiple companies having developed and fielded counter-drone systems, seeing live action in Iraq & Syria. While some are directional or active defense systems, newer counter-drone measures are able to track, sever & spoof connections between drones & their base-controller, mimicking attack styles that were used against the US by Iran years earlier.

Where do we go from here? In all of the directions at once. The counter drone market alone will reach $2 billion by 2024, with over 235 products already tracked in 2018. The skies over Syria, Yemen, and Libya are thick with UAVs, jamming systems, and counter-drone radio disruptors. The Army built a laser system onto a jeep that can shoot drones out of the sky much faster than a missile system could respond. Building an entirely American quadcopter without Chinese manufacturing, however, is a slightly taller order. War on the Rocks has an in-depth review of how AI can falter in irregular battle conditions, which throws a wrench into the plans of all of the “no humans needed in the loop” supporters. In addition to destroying infrastructure, loitering systems are being developed that functions as a communications tower/repeater, that can be quickly deployed after natural disasters.

Meat sacks will soon find themselves on an increasingly crowded field, sea, and sky of steel and fire. How this changes war, only Ares himself knows.

Eye-Watering Data Visualization of the Week: It was the blurst of times? You stupid monkeys. (Source from the Economist)

Vaguely Dystopian News of the Week: The FBI uses “secret subpoenas” to scoop up personal data without us being notified. Also, how the Hong Kong protesters use technology to avoid capture.

Annoying-But-Correct Take of the Week: Resentment & Populism are intertwined. Also, “cancel culture” is a con, you’re being tricked by people profiting from you not paying attention.

“Huh, Interesting” Read of the Week: ProPublica published a tool that shows you how much industry money your doctor, surgeon, or specialist has taken.

Royal Sampler

A list of actually useful cognitive biases, and the problem of hypocognition, or “unknown unknowns.” 

Media Matters compiled a great list of the terrible people going between Fox News & the Trump administration, lining their pockets along the way.

A brief history of gambling with dice. (Lithub)

How steak became manly & salad became feminine: Yes, even your dinner is fucked by the patriarchy.

Gotham Gazette tries to solve the NIMBY death spiral for housing reform. 

Quartz dug into why it feels like China’s social media propaganda just…doesn’t feel as good as the Russian stuff we’ve grown to love.

Dunk of the Week: BP should not play on the internet.

It’s the future. What electric sheep will you dream up?

Yours,

T