Factual Dispatch #31: Not Just A Sweater in Asia

August 16, 2019

(Image by John Hill - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=64340739)

By the time you read this, the UN Security Council may have finished its emergency closed door session, attempting to defuse the escalating tensions on the Kashmir/Pakistan border, after the first live fire exchange since India “modified” Kashmir’s autonomous status almost two weeks ago. Pakistan accuses India of firing artillery across the “Line of Control”, which resulted in cross-border fire for the rest of the day. At this point, two Pakistani civilians, three Pakistani soldiers, and five Indian soldiers are dead, and both sides are blaming each other. Even though both sides regularly & disingenuously accuse each other of cross-border escalation, August has been one for the record books on the South Asian sub-continent.

On August 5th, Prime Minister Modi’s BJP government stripped Jammu & Kashmir of certain freedoms and autonomy granted to them under this thing called Article 370. Article 370 gives Kashmir “independence” on cultural, internal, policy, religious, and other non-defense or foreign matters. And it was awarded to those states as a way to bring them into the Indian state union.

This unilateral change was also accompanied by a state-wide internet & communications blackout that is still going on, 11 days later. The shutdown came along with press suppression and arrests, and thousands of troops being sent to the region to “stabilize” it. And, to be clear, India shut off internet to Kashmir 134 times in 2018 alone. However, this time the blackout hid the Article 370 shift, and was not going to be taken lying down.

Protests developed rapidly, resulting in Indian security forces locking down the capital of Srinagar. The neighboring state of Punjab has come out in support of Jammu & Kashmir, but their voice is being shouted down by BJP and Modi’s government. Foreign Policy transcribed Modi’s remarks about the change, but for many involved, we are now way past talking.

In addition to sparking escalating protests, the move has played directly into the hands of secessionists and hardliners in Kashmir that are using Modi’s actions as evidence that they will never be treated equally and should seek full separation from India. Modi’s government arrested of pro-India political leaders and protesters who spoke out on the bills and electoral participation is at an all-time low. With the blackout affecting everything from ATMs to hospitals, and travel around the state becoming essentially impossible, the historically low approval of India has dropped even further.

Pakistan began proceedings to bring the issue to the UN Security Council last week, and India deployed fighter jets to the region on the 12th. With curfew rules in place across Kashmir, the celebration of Eid was almost impossible. Pakistan didn’t waste the opportunity, with Eid events taking on a more solemn, stripped down tone to express solidarity with Kashmir. With women’s rights activists attempting to prove to reporters that Indian paramilitary forces are arresting children, this may get worse before it gets better.

Throughout this debacle, Modi has had two reliable allies, Trump & Netanyahu. India has become the largest market for Israel’s weapon sales, while Trump seeing a brother-in-arms in his nationalist, populist friend Modi. Kashmir, like Hong Kong, is a great example of how long-lasting the damage of colonialism can be. But more importantly, with Foreign Policy discussing this on the 9th, and the New York Times mentioning it this morning, with the USA abdicating its role as referee, the wheels are coming off the car faster and in more places than the Trump administration anticipated.

Eye-Watering Data Visualization of the Week: Where we’ve been, for how long.

Vaguely Dystopian News of the Week: Staff at Amazon’s Ring are producing the narrative and PR content being used by police across the country to convince citizens to use it. Also Fox is just straight up photoshopping tweets now. 

Annoying-But-Correct Take of the Week: If Sanders or Warren wins, they’d be the first progressives that would need to install an entire foreign policy apparatus & diplomatic corps, and most leftists are not up to the job. Also, have you ever considered whether your religion is actually mythology?

“Huh Interesting” Read of the Week: PT Barnum was as much of a con-man and aspirationally Trump-type as you’d imagined. Also, Lincoln would have beaten you verbally & physically. From Sports Illustrated:

The rugged frontiersman once beat a man with a single toss and challenged the mob that had gathered with a shout: "Any of you want to try it, come on and whet your horns!" 

Royal Sampler

Foreign Exchanges detailed everything you’d ever wondered about the Hajj, which an estimated two million Muslims participated in this week. And if you’re curious like me, Al Arabiya had a great write up (with pictures!) of what inside the Kabba, or the black box at the center of the Great Mosque of Mecca (the holiest site in the Muslim world), looks like.

Sarah Topol’s parallel narrative of a Rohingya schoolteacher’s quest to educate his people, and the history of those people who have become refugees, while being butchered by the Myanmar government, is a moving portrait that deserves your undivided attention.

There’s a granny in Yorkshire tagging walls with anti-Brexit graffiti.

“Cleanfluencers” are building social media followings because people find watching others clean their houses to be calming.

With all of the insanity in the markets this week, you might have missed the most important macroeconomic event of the decade. A regulation limiting sulfur content of fuel used by maritime shipping vessels went into effect this week, and it will have wide ranging impacts on consumer prices, carbon emissions, and possibly even climate change over the next couple of decades.

Dunk of the Week:

We all need a day off, I’d say.

T